Possible scenario
Hawkish Repricing Extends
45% Chance
Investors treat the factory-price jump as evidence that goods disinflation has stalled. Treasury yields remain under upward pressure as traders price a higher terminal Fed rate and a longer period of restrictive policy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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