Possible scenario
Bond Market Stabilizes
25% Chance
The market decides the factory-price data are not enough to justify a larger Fed repricing without confirmation from payrolls or CPI. Dip-buying in Treasuries and short covering in equities produce a modest risk-on reversal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Utilities +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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