Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction Rises
15% Chance
Pedaran's execution draws international criticism over due process and the use of espionage charges after the 2025 conflict. The diplomatic response is more likely to involve statements, targeted designations, and IAEA tension than broad sanctions that immediately affect trade flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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