Possible scenario
Contained Intelligence Purge
45% Chance
Iran treats Hossein Pedaran's execution as part of a controlled counterintelligence cleanup rather than a trigger for direct retaliation. The IRGC and judiciary publicize additional arrests or verdicts to signal deterrence, while avoiding steps that would invite Israeli or U.S. military action.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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