Possible scenario
Narrow Truce Revived
28% Chance
The United States pushes both sides toward a more narrowly defined pause on energy infrastructure attacks, likely with ambiguous verification. Moscow may accept language that preserves military flexibility while reducing the most visible strikes for a limited period.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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