Possible scenario
Ceasefire Fails Quietly
42% Chance
Russia continues attacking Ukrainian power and heat infrastructure while avoiding an explicit rejection of Washington's ceasefire language. Kyiv treats the truce as non-operational, and the United States issues statements but does not immediately impose a major new penalty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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