Possible scenario
Wider Russian Outbreak
15% Chance
Russia confirms additional probable pneumonic plague cases among hospital staff, patients, or close contacts, requiring a federal response. The outbreak remains geographically concentrated in Siberia, but uncertainty over reporting and transmission produces a short-lived risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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