Possible scenario
Non-Plague Explanation
50% Chance
Russian health authorities determine that the deaths were caused by more common respiratory infections or bacterial pneumonia rather than pneumonic plague. This is the most likely path because contacts have already tested positive for COVID-19 and rhinovirus, and no plague diagnosis has been confirmed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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