Possible scenario
Probe Broadens Modestly
25% Chance
Investigators find enough irregularities to examine Guilfoyle's embassy staff, travel records, and donor-linked hospitality. The matter becomes embarrassing for Rubio but remains primarily an administrative and legal issue rather than a market-relevant political crisis.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.