Possible scenario
U.S. Escalates Deterrence
18% Chance
The Biden administration responds with a visible deterrence package: more military assets, sanctions, intelligence disclosures, and warnings to Tehran. This path avoids an immediate attack but raises the risk premium around the Gulf, U.S. bases, and diplomatic facilities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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