Possible scenario
Accidental NATO Incursion
18% Chance
A Russian drone or debris crosses into Polish territory, creating a sharper NATO-Russia incident than the current near-border fall. The base case is a political and military response under Article 4 consultations, but a casualty event would create a materially larger market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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