Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Russia controls the Samara fires, reroutes crude and fuel flows, and absorbs the hit through inventories. Ukraine demonstrates continued reach into the Volga-Urals refining system, but the immediate market impact remains concentrated in Russian refining and oil-product logistics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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