Possible scenario
Risk Assets Reprice
25% Chance
The rate shock spills more forcefully into equities and credit as investors reassess discount rates and financing costs. The damage is most visible in homebuilders, real estate, leveraged borrowers, and high-multiple growth stocks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.