Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Repricing
45% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled extension of the bond selloff rather than a disorderly market break. Investors continue to price sticky inflation, heavier Treasury supply, and a Fed that is reluctant to ease while energy costs remain elevated.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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