Possible scenario
Fed Validates Tightening
18% Chance
Federal Reserve officials treat the yield rise as consistent with the need to restrain inflation rather than as a reason to intervene verbally. Markets price a greater chance of additional tightening or a longer period of restrictive policy.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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