Possible scenario
Limited Confirmation Deal
27% Chance
The blockade softens after Senate leaders conclude that a total halt is politically costly and operationally difficult. Democrats still resist high-profile appellate nominees, but a narrow bargain allows lower-court confirmations and noncontroversial executive nominees to move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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