Possible scenario
Managed Russian Pressure
25% Chance
Russia and Belarus respond with military signaling, cyber activity, and border pressure, but avoid a direct confrontation with NATO forces. This is a common pattern after NATO deployments on the eastern flank and would likely keep tensions elevated without triggering a wider crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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