Possible scenario
Data Credibility Escalates
25% Chance
Because Trump previously fired the BLS chief over jobs numbers, the article could revive scrutiny of federal statistics and White House pressure on agencies. This would matter modestly for markets if investors worry about data reliability ahead of Fed decisions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.