Possible scenario
Financing Repricing
20% Chance
The scrutiny causes lenders and private-credit funds to reassess the risk of AI capacity contracts, especially where cash flows depend on a small group of hyperscale customers. Deals continue, but higher required returns slow marginal projects and pressure richly valued AI infrastructure equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.0%
- Utilities -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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