Possible scenario
Prolonged Sanaa Siege
25% Chance
The offensive evolves into an extended siege rather than a decisive battle. Food, fuel, and medical shortages worsen, while the UN, Oman, and Saudi Arabia press for humanitarian corridors and a limited pause.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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