Possible scenario
Conflict Regionalizes
20% Chance
The Houthis retaliate beyond the immediate front, targeting shipping, Saudi territory, or UAE-linked assets to raise the cost of the offensive. This is the highest-impact path for markets because it links the battle for Sanaa to energy and maritime chokepoint risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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