Possible scenario
Advances Then Stalemate
40% Chance
Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council forces and allied units make tactical gains east and south of Sanaa but fail to break Houthi defensive belts around the capital. The Houthis retain command cohesion, use mines and drones to slow the advance, and the front stabilizes outside the city.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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