Possible scenario
Investigation Finds Fault
15% Chance
Federal investigators identify a concrete failure point, such as an accidental construction cut, telecom maintenance error or insufficient FAA redundancy. This creates targeted liability and oversight consequences rather than a broad market event.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- UAL-0.6%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.