Possible scenario
Infrastructure Disruptions Spread
25% Chance
A less benign outcome is that repeated drone incursions or debris damage Moldovan grid, pumping, or water-treatment assets. The government would likely rely more heavily on Romania and EU assistance while extending restrictions on energy and water use.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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