Possible scenario
Coal Deal Executes
45% Chance
China follows through on the 10 million ton purchase through state utilities and trading houses, giving the new China Board of Trade an early credibility win. The most likely outcome is a measurable but contained rebound in U.S. coal exports after the 2025 tariff hit.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Tickers
- BTU+6.2%
- CNR+5.7%
- ARLP+3.7%
- +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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