Possible scenario
Sanctions Backlash Builds
20% Chance
Meloni's criticism becomes the center of a wider dispute over whether the US arrangement gives Moscow too much revenue flexibility. Europe does not immediately sever the restart, but buyers face rising legal and reputational risk.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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