Possible scenario
Restart Faces Disruption
25% Chance
The resumption proves fragile because Ukrainian strike risk, refinery outages, or transport bottlenecks limit actual deliveries. Traders price in renewed uncertainty around Russian distillate availability despite the formal policy reversal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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