Possible scenario
Managed Restart Holds
45% Chance
Russia keeps diesel moving out of Primorsk after the latest easing, with buyers treating the US understanding as sufficient cover for near-term cargoes. Meloni's warning generates political criticism in Europe but does not immediately stop liftings.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.