Scenario description
Assume commercial energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely ceases during the final week under credible closure or broad suspension conditions. Model the near-term effects on Gulf oil and LNG deliveries, freight and insurance, energy prices, inflation expectations, and exposed markets while distinguishing transit loss from wider war outcomes.
Scenario-implied market response
- Market-cap-weighted response
- -12.0%
- Equity value change
- -$11.5T
Most impacted companies
- NVDANVIDIA Corp.-20.0%
- AAPLApple, Inc.-16.6%
- GOOGL