Possible scenario
Case Is Remanded
15% Chance
The Supreme Court avoids a definitive ruling and orders the Central Elections Committee to reconsider the evidentiary record or procedural steps. This outcome buys time but prolongs uncertainty over ballots, turnout, and the election calendar.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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