Possible scenario
Crackdown Broadens Politically
27% Chance
The raid becomes part of a wider campaign against opposition-linked media, municipalities, and protest organizers. Given the jailing of Ekrem İmamoğlu and detention of additional mayors earlier in 2025, further escalation against CHP networks is a realistic next step.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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