Possible scenario
Naval Escalation
25% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, and Gulf partners expand naval escorts after another attack or seizure near the Strait. This raises the chance of safe passage but also increases the probability of direct clashes with Iranian forces or aligned militias.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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