Possible scenario
Diplomatic Partial Reopening
35% Chance
Iran allows limited, inspected tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz after mediation by Oman, Qatar, and China. OPEC+ frames the shipping-cost warning as evidence that oil-market damage is becoming intolerable for producers and consumers alike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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