Possible scenario
Blockade Persists
30% Chance
The shipping-cost warning fails to produce a quick diplomatic breakthrough, and tanker owners continue demanding extreme war-risk premiums. Physical oil buyers bid aggressively for non-Gulf barrels, while refiners and importers face margin pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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