Possible scenario
SOFA Talks Reopen
20% Chance
The incident pushes Japan and the United States into limited procedural talks on custody, police access, and off-base conduct by U.S. personnel. Both governments seek a narrow fix that reassures Okinawa without weakening alliance operations during regional tensions with China and North Korea.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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