Possible scenario
Refinery Pressure Campaign
35% Chance
The White House turns the gas-price narrative into direct pressure on refiners, arguing that outages and maintenance scheduling are keeping pump prices elevated even as Hormuz risk is already priced in. This is plausible because Trump has an incentive to show domestic action after blaming Iran earlier in the year.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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