Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Returns
20% Chance
The shift in blame proves premature if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired or becomes more dangerous. Oil markets reprice geopolitical supply risk, partially overwhelming domestic refinery developments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Tickers
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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