Possible scenario
Risk-Off Reversal
24% Chance
The yield spike begins to look restrictive enough to threaten growth and corporate refinancing conditions. Investors rotate into safer assets, causing Treasury yields to fall from the highs even as equity volatility and credit spreads rise.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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