Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Repricing
42% Chance
Investors treat the move to 5.2% as a repricing of stronger growth, larger Treasury supply, and a higher term premium rather than the start of a funding crisis. Risk assets weaken modestly, with the largest pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as technology, utilities, housing, and consumer cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.