Possible scenario
Congressional Scrutiny Expands
25% Chance
Lawmakers use the filing to renew conflict-of-interest questions, especially after prior concerns about tariffs, automated trades, and family AI ties. The base case is document requests and hearings rather than immediate enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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