Possible scenario
Hard Line Becomes Policy
28% Chance
Smotrich and allied far-right ministers translate the rhetoric into pressure for tighter restrictions on Gaza reconstruction, aid flows and future governance. The most plausible form is bureaucratic obstruction and annexation-related proposals rather than a single formal order to depopulate Gaza.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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