Possible scenario
Hawkish Acceleration
25% Chance
The ECB presents the September move as the start of a faster tightening campaign, reacting to renewed energy-driven inflation and sticky wages. This would extend the recent bond selloff and put immediate pressure on rate-sensitive equities and credit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
- Utilities -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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