Possible scenario
Musk-Led Fab Proceeds
35% Chance
Musk secures enough political, supplier, and customer support to move forward with a Texas Terafab run outside TSMC management. This is plausible because Tesla and SpaceX have strong internal chip demand, while Texas offers political backing, land, and energy infrastructure.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+0.8%
- TSLA+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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