Possible scenario
Government Review Slows
20% Chance
Federal and state authorities scrutinize whether a Musk-operated fab qualifies for subsidies, export-control protections, and secure handling of advanced semiconductor technology. The project remains strategically attractive but becomes tied up in governance, security, labor, water, and grid reviews.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- TSLA-2.1%
- SPCX-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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