Possible scenario
GOP Early Surge
42% Chance
Republicans continue to outperform in early in-person voting after winning the first early-voting day. The Democratic mail-ballot advantage remains real, but the Republican Party of Florida benefits from a larger Election Day-oriented electorate and Donald Trump’s October push to normalize GOP mail voting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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