Possible scenario
Democratic Mail Durability
27% Chance
Democrats’ mail-ballot advantage keeps expanding despite Republican gains in early in-person voting. The October 1 break in the GOP registration streak looks less like a one-off and more like a sign that Democratic organizing has stabilized in Florida after years of Republican gains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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