Possible scenario
Escort-Led Containment
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the US Fifth Fleet, India, and Gulf states expand escorts and surveillance without a direct US-Iran clash. Tanker rates remain historically high, but physical flows to India continue with delays and higher war-risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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