Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries obtain a limited pause in attacks or a tacit mine-clearance window. Freight rates would not normalize immediately, but oil prices and volatility would retrace part of the risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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