Possible scenario
Leadership Contains Backlash
20% Chance
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or senior security bodies signal that the talks remain authorized, limiting the ability of parliament to force a policy reversal. The political noise persists, but markets treat it as managed factional conflict rather than a breakdown in diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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