Possible scenario
Hardliners Derail Talks
25% Chance
The impeachment drive gains enough momentum to chill diplomacy even if it does not immediately remove Araghchi. Traders mark down the probability of near-term sanctions relief and price a modest geopolitical premium back into crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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